Recent April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March amid an energy price spike tied to Middle East tensions, forms the key backdrop for May expectations. The Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a further rise near 4.2%, reflecting persistent gasoline pressures and early tariff effects on goods prices. With 4.2% and 4.3% outcomes commanding roughly equal trader weight at 44.5% and 40.0% implied probability, sentiment hinges on whether monthly energy moderation offsets shelter and core components or if fiscal and labor dynamics sustain the uptrend. The June 10 release remains the immediate catalyst, with market-implied odds treating the outcome as finely balanced rather than certain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
4.4%以上 9%
4.1% 6.3%
$358,825 Vol.
$358,825 Vol.
3.3%以下
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
4.4%以上
9%
4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
4.4%以上 9%
4.1% 6.3%
$358,825 Vol.
$358,825 Vol.
3.3%以下
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
4.4%以上
9%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March amid an energy price spike tied to Middle East tensions, forms the key backdrop for May expectations. The Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a further rise near 4.2%, reflecting persistent gasoline pressures and early tariff effects on goods prices. With 4.2% and 4.3% outcomes commanding roughly equal trader weight at 44.5% and 40.0% implied probability, sentiment hinges on whether monthly energy moderation offsets shelter and core components or if fiscal and labor dynamics sustain the uptrend. The June 10 release remains the immediate catalyst, with market-implied odds treating the outcome as finely balanced rather than certain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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