Recent labor market strength, with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%, combined with sticky inflation at 3.4% year-over-year CPI, has positioned the overheating scenario as the market's leading outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Core PCE remains elevated near 3.3%, supported by robust wage growth, AI-driven investment, and energy price pressures, keeping headline readings above the 3.5% threshold even as the Fed maintains the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. Trader consensus reflects limited scope for unemployment to reach 5% by year-end given resilient consumer spending and productivity gains, while the 35.5% soft-landing odds hinge on faster disinflation ahead of the September FOMC. Stagflation and slack probabilities stay negligible below 1% amid these conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 64%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$83,365 Vol.
$83,365 Vol.
2027/01/30
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
64%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 64%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$83,365 Vol.
$83,365 Vol.
2027/01/30
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$28,185 Vol.
64%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$39,006 Vol.
36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,207 Vol.
<1%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$3,967 Vol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent labor market strength, with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%, combined with sticky inflation at 3.4% year-over-year CPI, has positioned the overheating scenario as the market's leading outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Core PCE remains elevated near 3.3%, supported by robust wage growth, AI-driven investment, and energy price pressures, keeping headline readings above the 3.5% threshold even as the Fed maintains the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. Trader consensus reflects limited scope for unemployment to reach 5% by year-end given resilient consumer spending and productivity gains, while the 35.5% soft-landing odds hinge on faster disinflation ahead of the September FOMC. Stagflation and slack probabilities stay negligible below 1% amid these conditions.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$83,365終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent labor market strength, with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%, combined with sticky inflation at 3.4% year-over-year CPI, has positioned the overheating scenario as the market's leading outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Core PCE remains elevated near 3.3%, supported by robust wage growth, AI-driven investment, and energy price pressures, keeping headline readings above the 3.5% threshold even as the Fed maintains the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. Trader consensus reflects limited scope for unemployment to reach 5% by year-end given resilient consumer spending and productivity gains, while the 35.5% soft-landing odds hinge on faster disinflation ahead of the September FOMC. Stagflation and slack probabilities stay negligible below 1% amid these conditions.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
音量
$83,365終了日
2027/01/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market strength, with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%, combined with sticky inflation at 3.4% year-over-year CPI, has positioned the overheating scenario as the market's leading outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Core PCE remains elevated near 3.3%, supported by robust wage growth, AI-driven investment, and energy price pressures, keeping headline readings above the 3.5% threshold even as the Fed maintains the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. Trader consensus reflects limited scope for unemployment to reach 5% by year-end given resilient consumer spending and productivity gains, while the 35.5% soft-landing odds hinge on faster disinflation ahead of the September FOMC. Stagflation and slack probabilities stay negligible below 1% amid these conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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