Recent polling and fundraising data have positioned Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza as the frontrunner in Arizona’s 6th congressional district, driving the current trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. A March 2026 survey by Ragnar Research Partners showed Mendoza ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani by three points, while her first-quarter fundraising reached $2.44 million with over $3.5 million cash on hand, outpacing the incumbent. The race remains a toss-up according to the Cook Political Report, reflecting the district’s even partisan split and Ciscomani’s narrow 2024 win. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with local voter concerns over costs and tariffs, further support the implied probability reflected in prediction market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
77%
Republican Party
27%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$470 거래량
77%
Republican Party
$922 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and fundraising data have positioned Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza as the frontrunner in Arizona’s 6th congressional district, driving the current trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. A March 2026 survey by Ragnar Research Partners showed Mendoza ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani by three points, while her first-quarter fundraising reached $2.44 million with over $3.5 million cash on hand, outpacing the incumbent. The race remains a toss-up according to the Cook Political Report, reflecting the district’s even partisan split and Ciscomani’s narrow 2024 win. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with local voter concerns over costs and tariffs, further support the implied probability reflected in prediction market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
거래량
$1,391종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and fundraising data have positioned Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza as the frontrunner in Arizona’s 6th congressional district, driving the current trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. A March 2026 survey by Ragnar Research Partners showed Mendoza ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani by three points, while her first-quarter fundraising reached $2.44 million with over $3.5 million cash on hand, outpacing the incumbent. The race remains a toss-up according to the Cook Political Report, reflecting the district’s even partisan split and Ciscomani’s narrow 2024 win. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with local voter concerns over costs and tariffs, further support the implied probability reflected in prediction market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,391종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling and fundraising data have positioned Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza as the frontrunner in Arizona’s 6th congressional district, driving the current trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. A March 2026 survey by Ragnar Research Partners showed Mendoza ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani by three points, while her first-quarter fundraising reached $2.44 million with over $3.5 million cash on hand, outpacing the incumbent. The race remains a toss-up according to the Cook Political Report, reflecting the district’s even partisan split and Ciscomani’s narrow 2024 win. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with local voter concerns over costs and tariffs, further support the implied probability reflected in prediction market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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