Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Gil Cisneros's strong incumbency advantage in a reliably Democratic-leaning San Gabriel Valley district. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces minimal threat from Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, who are splitting the GOP vote amid his fundraising dominance—over $590,000 raised. Cook Political Report recently noted Cisneros's shift to a more comfortable position, reflecting no recent polling shifts or high-profile GOP challengers. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, solidifying the status quo from his 2024 victory. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset, Cisneros scandal, legal issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in Latino-heavy battlegrounds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$3,528 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$3,113 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Gil Cisneros's strong incumbency advantage in a reliably Democratic-leaning San Gabriel Valley district. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces minimal threat from Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, who are splitting the GOP vote amid his fundraising dominance—over $590,000 raised. Cook Political Report recently noted Cisneros's shift to a more comfortable position, reflecting no recent polling shifts or high-profile GOP challengers. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, solidifying the status quo from his 2024 victory. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset, Cisneros scandal, legal issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in Latino-heavy battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
거래량
$6,642종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Gil Cisneros's strong incumbency advantage in a reliably Democratic-leaning San Gabriel Valley district. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces minimal threat from Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, who are splitting the GOP vote amid his fundraising dominance—over $590,000 raised. Cook Political Report recently noted Cisneros's shift to a more comfortable position, reflecting no recent polling shifts or high-profile GOP challengers. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, solidifying the status quo from his 2024 victory. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset, Cisneros scandal, legal issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in Latino-heavy battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,642종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Gil Cisneros's strong incumbency advantage in a reliably Democratic-leaning San Gabriel Valley district. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces minimal threat from Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, who are splitting the GOP vote amid his fundraising dominance—over $590,000 raised. Cook Political Report recently noted Cisneros's shift to a more comfortable position, reflecting no recent polling shifts or high-profile GOP challengers. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, solidifying the status quo from his 2024 victory. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset, Cisneros scandal, legal issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in Latino-heavy battlegrounds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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