South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican-leaning district, where the party has held the seat for decades and typically secures large margins in general elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the June 2 Republican primary between Attorney General Marty Jackley and challenger James Bialota will determine the nominee, who faces Democrat Nicole Gronli in November. Recent polling shows Jackley leading the primary field, and statewide voter registration and historical results underscore limited Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% implied probability for Republicans reflects this structural advantage. A late scandal in the Republican primary or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given current trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,931 거래량
$16,931 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$16,931 거래량
$16,931 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$9,474 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$7,457 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican-leaning district, where the party has held the seat for decades and typically secures large margins in general elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the June 2 Republican primary between Attorney General Marty Jackley and challenger James Bialota will determine the nominee, who faces Democrat Nicole Gronli in November. Recent polling shows Jackley leading the primary field, and statewide voter registration and historical results underscore limited Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% implied probability for Republicans reflects this structural advantage. A late scandal in the Republican primary or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given current trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$16,931종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican-leaning district, where the party has held the seat for decades and typically secures large margins in general elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the June 2 Republican primary between Attorney General Marty Jackley and challenger James Bialota will determine the nominee, who faces Democrat Nicole Gronli in November. Recent polling shows Jackley leading the primary field, and statewide voter registration and historical results underscore limited Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% implied probability for Republicans reflects this structural advantage. A late scandal in the Republican primary or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given current trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,931종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican-leaning district, where the party has held the seat for decades and typically secures large margins in general elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the June 2 Republican primary between Attorney General Marty Jackley and challenger James Bialota will determine the nominee, who faces Democrat Nicole Gronli in November. Recent polling shows Jackley leading the primary field, and statewide voter registration and historical results underscore limited Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% implied probability for Republicans reflects this structural advantage. A late scandal in the Republican primary or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given current trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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