Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent representative Greg Stanton's reelection margins in prior cycles. With the July 2026 primary approaching, Stanton faces a Democratic challenger in Kai Newkirk while multiple Republican candidates compete in their primary, yet these contests have not produced shifts that alter the general election outlook. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and absence of major external catalysts. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 87.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,780 거래량
$16,780 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
88%
공화당
14%
$16,780 거래량
$16,780 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$13,972 거래량
88%
공화당
$2,808 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent representative Greg Stanton's reelection margins in prior cycles. With the July 2026 primary approaching, Stanton faces a Democratic challenger in Kai Newkirk while multiple Republican candidates compete in their primary, yet these contests have not produced shifts that alter the general election outlook. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and absence of major external catalysts. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 87.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$16,780종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent representative Greg Stanton's reelection margins in prior cycles. With the July 2026 primary approaching, Stanton faces a Democratic challenger in Kai Newkirk while multiple Republican candidates compete in their primary, yet these contests have not produced shifts that alter the general election outlook. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and absence of major external catalysts. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 87.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,780종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent representative Greg Stanton's reelection margins in prior cycles. With the July 2026 primary approaching, Stanton faces a Democratic challenger in Kai Newkirk while multiple Republican candidates compete in their primary, yet these contests have not produced shifts that alter the general election outlook. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the district's voting history and absence of major external catalysts. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 87.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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