The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a D+20 partisan voting index and voter registration favoring Democrats by more than 3-to-1, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 93.5%. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special primary alongside the June 2 nonpartisan primary, yet the open seat has drawn strong Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez, while Republican options remain limited to lower-profile figures such as Wendy Huang. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as safe or solid Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national midterm wave, a damaged Democratic nominee, and unusually high turnout among independents in the eastern Bay Area.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,644 거래량
$25,644 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
7%
$25,644 거래량
$25,644 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,560 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,084 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a D+20 partisan voting index and voter registration favoring Democrats by more than 3-to-1, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 93.5%. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special primary alongside the June 2 nonpartisan primary, yet the open seat has drawn strong Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez, while Republican options remain limited to lower-profile figures such as Wendy Huang. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as safe or solid Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national midterm wave, a damaged Democratic nominee, and unusually high turnout among independents in the eastern Bay Area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$25,644종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a D+20 partisan voting index and voter registration favoring Democrats by more than 3-to-1, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 93.5%. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special primary alongside the June 2 nonpartisan primary, yet the open seat has drawn strong Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez, while Republican options remain limited to lower-profile figures such as Wendy Huang. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as safe or solid Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national midterm wave, a damaged Democratic nominee, and unusually high turnout among independents in the eastern Bay Area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,644종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a D+20 partisan voting index and voter registration favoring Democrats by more than 3-to-1, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 93.5%. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special primary alongside the June 2 nonpartisan primary, yet the open seat has drawn strong Democratic contenders including state Senator Aisha Wahab and former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez, while Republican options remain limited to lower-profile figures such as Wendy Huang. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as safe or solid Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national midterm wave, a damaged Democratic nominee, and unusually high turnout among independents in the eastern Bay Area.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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