Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a D+7 seat where Kamala Harris won 55% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 90.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3 general election. Stansbury faces no Democratic primary opposition on June 2, while Republican Ndidiamaka Okpareke secured 85% delegate support at the March pre-primary convention and leads her party's field despite others withdrawing. Massive fundraising disparities—Stansbury with over $1 million raised and $356,000 cash on hand versus Okpareke's $54,000 raised—reinforce forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Upsets could arise from a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or primary surprise, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,110 거래량
$20,110 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
91%
공화당
7%
$20,110 거래량
$20,110 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$9,731 거래량
91%
공화당
$10,379 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a D+7 seat where Kamala Harris won 55% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 90.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3 general election. Stansbury faces no Democratic primary opposition on June 2, while Republican Ndidiamaka Okpareke secured 85% delegate support at the March pre-primary convention and leads her party's field despite others withdrawing. Massive fundraising disparities—Stansbury with over $1 million raised and $356,000 cash on hand versus Okpareke's $54,000 raised—reinforce forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Upsets could arise from a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or primary surprise, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$20,110종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a D+7 seat where Kamala Harris won 55% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 90.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3 general election. Stansbury faces no Democratic primary opposition on June 2, while Republican Ndidiamaka Okpareke secured 85% delegate support at the March pre-primary convention and leads her party's field despite others withdrawing. Massive fundraising disparities—Stansbury with over $1 million raised and $356,000 cash on hand versus Okpareke's $54,000 raised—reinforce forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Upsets could arise from a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or primary surprise, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,110종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a D+7 seat where Kamala Harris won 55% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 90.5% for the Democratic Party ahead of the November 3 general election. Stansbury faces no Democratic primary opposition on June 2, while Republican Ndidiamaka Okpareke secured 85% delegate support at the March pre-primary convention and leads her party's field despite others withdrawing. Massive fundraising disparities—Stansbury with over $1 million raised and $356,000 cash on hand versus Okpareke's $54,000 raised—reinforce forecasters' Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Upsets could arise from a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or primary surprise, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문