The narrow 2024 victory by incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, decided by under 1 percentage point against Democrat Christina Bohannan, has positioned the seat as a toss-up for the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the race competitive due to the district's mix of urban and rural voters in areas including Davenport and Iowa City. Bohannan, seeking the Democratic nomination ahead of the June 2 primary, has outraised the incumbent in recent fundraising reports and benefits from established name recognition and infrastructure in a rematch scenario. Traders assign the Democratic Party the leading implied probability, reflecting expectations that national conditions and local turnout dynamics could favor a flip in this battleground district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
78%
Republican Party
45%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$734 거래량
78%
Republican Party
$641 거래량
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The narrow 2024 victory by incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, decided by under 1 percentage point against Democrat Christina Bohannan, has positioned the seat as a toss-up for the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the race competitive due to the district's mix of urban and rural voters in areas including Davenport and Iowa City. Bohannan, seeking the Democratic nomination ahead of the June 2 primary, has outraised the incumbent in recent fundraising reports and benefits from established name recognition and infrastructure in a rematch scenario. Traders assign the Democratic Party the leading implied probability, reflecting expectations that national conditions and local turnout dynamics could favor a flip in this battleground district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
거래량
$1,374종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The narrow 2024 victory by incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, decided by under 1 percentage point against Democrat Christina Bohannan, has positioned the seat as a toss-up for the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the race competitive due to the district's mix of urban and rural voters in areas including Davenport and Iowa City. Bohannan, seeking the Democratic nomination ahead of the June 2 primary, has outraised the incumbent in recent fundraising reports and benefits from established name recognition and infrastructure in a rematch scenario. Traders assign the Democratic Party the leading implied probability, reflecting expectations that national conditions and local turnout dynamics could favor a flip in this battleground district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,374종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The narrow 2024 victory by incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, decided by under 1 percentage point against Democrat Christina Bohannan, has positioned the seat as a toss-up for the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the race competitive due to the district's mix of urban and rural voters in areas including Davenport and Iowa City. Bohannan, seeking the Democratic nomination ahead of the June 2 primary, has outraised the incumbent in recent fundraising reports and benefits from established name recognition and infrastructure in a rematch scenario. Traders assign the Democratic Party the leading implied probability, reflecting expectations that national conditions and local turnout dynamics could favor a flip in this battleground district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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