The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in Texas's 24th congressional district, a suburban Dallas seat with an R+8 partisan voting index that delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 21-point reelection in 2024. Redistricting completed in 2025 preserved this tilt after only minor adjustments, while the Democratic primary produced low turnout and advanced two challengers to a May 26 runoff with limited early fundraising or name recognition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a 77.5 percent implied probability. National midterm dynamics or late developments in the Democratic runoff could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election, though structural factors continue to anchor expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,395 거래량
$26,395 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
76%
민주당
27%
$26,395 거래량
$26,395 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$11,466 거래량
76%
민주당
$14,929 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in Texas's 24th congressional district, a suburban Dallas seat with an R+8 partisan voting index that delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 21-point reelection in 2024. Redistricting completed in 2025 preserved this tilt after only minor adjustments, while the Democratic primary produced low turnout and advanced two challengers to a May 26 runoff with limited early fundraising or name recognition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a 77.5 percent implied probability. National midterm dynamics or late developments in the Democratic runoff could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election, though structural factors continue to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$26,395종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in Texas's 24th congressional district, a suburban Dallas seat with an R+8 partisan voting index that delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 21-point reelection in 2024. Redistricting completed in 2025 preserved this tilt after only minor adjustments, while the Democratic primary produced low turnout and advanced two challengers to a May 26 runoff with limited early fundraising or name recognition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a 77.5 percent implied probability. National midterm dynamics or late developments in the Democratic runoff could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election, though structural factors continue to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,395종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in Texas's 24th congressional district, a suburban Dallas seat with an R+8 partisan voting index that delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 21-point reelection in 2024. Redistricting completed in 2025 preserved this tilt after only minor adjustments, while the Democratic primary produced low turnout and advanced two challengers to a May 26 runoff with limited early fundraising or name recognition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a 77.5 percent implied probability. National midterm dynamics or late developments in the Democratic runoff could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election, though structural factors continue to anchor expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문