Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) dominates the CA-39 House race ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Takano's commanding position stems from his fundraising edge ($649,000 raised vs. Manos' $0), the district's D+7 partisan voting index, voter registration advantage, and consistent general election margins around 57% in 2022 and 2024, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine candidate questionnaires. Realistic challenges include a stronger GOP primary contender emerging, a Takano scandal, low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican midterm wave altering the top-two matchup.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$32,791 거래량
$32,791 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
92%
공화당
8%
$32,791 거래량
$32,791 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$26,629 거래량
92%
공화당
$6,162 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) dominates the CA-39 House race ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Takano's commanding position stems from his fundraising edge ($649,000 raised vs. Manos' $0), the district's D+7 partisan voting index, voter registration advantage, and consistent general election margins around 57% in 2022 and 2024, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine candidate questionnaires. Realistic challenges include a stronger GOP primary contender emerging, a Takano scandal, low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican midterm wave altering the top-two matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$32,791종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) dominates the CA-39 House race ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Takano's commanding position stems from his fundraising edge ($649,000 raised vs. Manos' $0), the district's D+7 partisan voting index, voter registration advantage, and consistent general election margins around 57% in 2022 and 2024, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine candidate questionnaires. Realistic challenges include a stronger GOP primary contender emerging, a Takano scandal, low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican midterm wave altering the top-two matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$32,791종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) dominates the CA-39 House race ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Takano's commanding position stems from his fundraising edge ($649,000 raised vs. Manos' $0), the district's D+7 partisan voting index, voter registration advantage, and consistent general election margins around 57% in 2022 and 2024, earning Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine candidate questionnaires. Realistic challenges include a stronger GOP primary contender emerging, a Takano scandal, low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican midterm wave altering the top-two matchup.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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