Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,084 거래량
$11,084 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$11,084 거래량
$11,084 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,449 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$8,635 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$11,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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