California's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+36 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Nancy Pelosi's 81 percent general election margin in 2024. The open seat after her retirement has drawn a crowded top-two primary field dominated by Democrats, including frontrunner Scott Wiener who leads recent polling and fundraising, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Republican candidates trail significantly in voter surveys and endorsements, consistent with the district's registration patterns and turnout history. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus favoring the party at 94.5 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting top Democratic contenders or an unusually strong Republican primary performance could still shift the outcome, though such shifts face steep structural barriers in this heavily Democratic district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,297 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$701 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+36 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Nancy Pelosi's 81 percent general election margin in 2024. The open seat after her retirement has drawn a crowded top-two primary field dominated by Democrats, including frontrunner Scott Wiener who leads recent polling and fundraising, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Republican candidates trail significantly in voter surveys and endorsements, consistent with the district's registration patterns and turnout history. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus favoring the party at 94.5 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting top Democratic contenders or an unusually strong Republican primary performance could still shift the outcome, though such shifts face steep structural barriers in this heavily Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+36 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Nancy Pelosi's 81 percent general election margin in 2024. The open seat after her retirement has drawn a crowded top-two primary field dominated by Democrats, including frontrunner Scott Wiener who leads recent polling and fundraising, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Republican candidates trail significantly in voter surveys and endorsements, consistent with the district's registration patterns and turnout history. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus favoring the party at 94.5 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting top Democratic contenders or an unusually strong Republican primary performance could still shift the outcome, though such shifts face steep structural barriers in this heavily Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,998종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+36 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Nancy Pelosi's 81 percent general election margin in 2024. The open seat after her retirement has drawn a crowded top-two primary field dominated by Democrats, including frontrunner Scott Wiener who leads recent polling and fundraising, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Republican candidates trail significantly in voter surveys and endorsements, consistent with the district's registration patterns and turnout history. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus favoring the party at 94.5 percent. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting top Democratic contenders or an unusually strong Republican primary performance could still shift the outcome, though such shifts face steep structural barriers in this heavily Democratic district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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