Incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Texas's 16th Congressional District, anchored by the El Paso-based seat's deep Democratic lean—historically D+19 Cook PVI—and her unchallenged March 3 primary nomination amid strong fundraising and incumbency advantages. Recent GOP primary fragmentation, with seven candidates splitting votes and forcing a May 26 runoff between Adam Bauman and Manuel Barraza, underscores Republican challenges in this Hispanic-majority battleground, where Democrats have won by double digits in recent cycles. While national midterm dynamics or turnout surges could narrow gaps, realistic shifts would require a major GOP wave, Escobar scandal, or exceptional Republican nominee momentum before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,003 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$3,926 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Texas's 16th Congressional District, anchored by the El Paso-based seat's deep Democratic lean—historically D+19 Cook PVI—and her unchallenged March 3 primary nomination amid strong fundraising and incumbency advantages. Recent GOP primary fragmentation, with seven candidates splitting votes and forcing a May 26 runoff between Adam Bauman and Manuel Barraza, underscores Republican challenges in this Hispanic-majority battleground, where Democrats have won by double digits in recent cycles. While national midterm dynamics or turnout surges could narrow gaps, realistic shifts would require a major GOP wave, Escobar scandal, or exceptional Republican nominee momentum before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$8,929종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Texas's 16th Congressional District, anchored by the El Paso-based seat's deep Democratic lean—historically D+19 Cook PVI—and her unchallenged March 3 primary nomination amid strong fundraising and incumbency advantages. Recent GOP primary fragmentation, with seven candidates splitting votes and forcing a May 26 runoff between Adam Bauman and Manuel Barraza, underscores Republican challenges in this Hispanic-majority battleground, where Democrats have won by double digits in recent cycles. While national midterm dynamics or turnout surges could narrow gaps, realistic shifts would require a major GOP wave, Escobar scandal, or exceptional Republican nominee momentum before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$8,929종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Texas's 16th Congressional District, anchored by the El Paso-based seat's deep Democratic lean—historically D+19 Cook PVI—and her unchallenged March 3 primary nomination amid strong fundraising and incumbency advantages. Recent GOP primary fragmentation, with seven candidates splitting votes and forcing a May 26 runoff between Adam Bauman and Manuel Barraza, underscores Republican challenges in this Hispanic-majority battleground, where Democrats have won by double digits in recent cycles. While national midterm dynamics or turnout surges could narrow gaps, realistic shifts would require a major GOP wave, Escobar scandal, or exceptional Republican nominee momentum before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문