The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$33,778 거래량
$33,778 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$33,778 거래량
$33,778 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$20,165 거래량
94%
공화당
$13,612 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$33,778종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$33,778종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 12th congressional district, driven by its San Francisco voter base and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon faces a June 2 nonpartisan primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, with no competitive Republican challengers advancing, and race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. This positioning reflects established turnout patterns and registration advantages exceeding 60 percent Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election, though such factors have not materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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