Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent double-digit victories in recent cycles—incumbent Julia Brownley secured 56% in 2024 despite a top-two primary advance alongside Republican Michael Koslow. Brownley's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, presumed frontrunner with local elected experience, against four Republicans like rematch candidate Koslow. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Safe or Solid Democratic based on voter patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. An upset would require a strong GOP primary performer, Democratic nominee scandal, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural advantages make this unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,372 거래량
$26,372 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$26,372 거래량
$26,372 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,001 거래량
93%
공화당
$12,372 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent double-digit victories in recent cycles—incumbent Julia Brownley secured 56% in 2024 despite a top-two primary advance alongside Republican Michael Koslow. Brownley's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, presumed frontrunner with local elected experience, against four Republicans like rematch candidate Koslow. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Safe or Solid Democratic based on voter patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. An upset would require a strong GOP primary performer, Democratic nominee scandal, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural advantages make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
거래량
$26,372종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent double-digit victories in recent cycles—incumbent Julia Brownley secured 56% in 2024 despite a top-two primary advance alongside Republican Michael Koslow. Brownley's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, presumed frontrunner with local elected experience, against four Republicans like rematch candidate Koslow. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Safe or Solid Democratic based on voter patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. An upset would require a strong GOP primary performer, Democratic nominee scandal, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural advantages make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,372종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent double-digit victories in recent cycles—incumbent Julia Brownley secured 56% in 2024 despite a top-two primary advance alongside Republican Michael Koslow. Brownley's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, presumed frontrunner with local elected experience, against four Republicans like rematch candidate Koslow. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Safe or Solid Democratic based on voter patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. An upset would require a strong GOP primary performer, Democratic nominee scandal, or national Republican midterm wave, though structural advantages make this unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문