Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,415 거래량
$23,415 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
3%
$23,415 거래량
$23,415 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$6,364 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,051 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$23,415종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,415종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in Milwaukee, where incumbent Gwen Moore has won reelection with margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. Moore faces primary challengers Amy Donahue and Asher Smale on August 11, while the Republican primary features only Purnima Nath. With filing deadlines passed and no major shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for similar urban Democratic districts. A late primary upset or unexpected redistricting ruling could theoretically alter the November 3 general election, though both remain low-probability events at this stage.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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