Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a structural Democratic stronghold heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Gwen Moore seeking another term after securing roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024. The seat’s D+26 partisan voter index and concentration of Democratic voters in Milwaukee County have produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, and limited Republican primary activity has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold at 93.5 percent. A Democratic primary featuring Moore and two challengers is scheduled for August 11, with the general election following on November 3. The only plausible shifts in odds would require Moore’s withdrawal, a significant health event, or an unforeseen late development capable of altering the district’s underlying partisan balance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,415 거래량
$23,415 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
3%
$23,415 거래량
$23,415 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$6,364 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,051 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a structural Democratic stronghold heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Gwen Moore seeking another term after securing roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024. The seat’s D+26 partisan voter index and concentration of Democratic voters in Milwaukee County have produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, and limited Republican primary activity has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold at 93.5 percent. A Democratic primary featuring Moore and two challengers is scheduled for August 11, with the general election following on November 3. The only plausible shifts in odds would require Moore’s withdrawal, a significant health event, or an unforeseen late development capable of altering the district’s underlying partisan balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$23,415종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a structural Democratic stronghold heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Gwen Moore seeking another term after securing roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024. The seat’s D+26 partisan voter index and concentration of Democratic voters in Milwaukee County have produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, and limited Republican primary activity has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold at 93.5 percent. A Democratic primary featuring Moore and two challengers is scheduled for August 11, with the general election following on November 3. The only plausible shifts in odds would require Moore’s withdrawal, a significant health event, or an unforeseen late development capable of altering the district’s underlying partisan balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,415종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District remains a structural Democratic stronghold heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Gwen Moore seeking another term after securing roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024. The seat’s D+26 partisan voter index and concentration of Democratic voters in Milwaukee County have produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, and limited Republican primary activity has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold at 93.5 percent. A Democratic primary featuring Moore and two challengers is scheduled for August 11, with the general election following on November 3. The only plausible shifts in odds would require Moore’s withdrawal, a significant health event, or an unforeseen late development capable of altering the district’s underlying partisan balance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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