Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest secured the Republican nomination unopposed in Mississippi's March 10 primary, capturing over 44,000 votes while Democrat Michael Chiaradio advanced with just 2,590 in his uncontested primary, teeing up the November 3 general election in this Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+14. Trader consensus pricing Republicans above 90% stems from the district's entrenched GOP lean—Guest's prior wins of 71% in 2022 and 100% unopposed in 2024—coupled with his fundraising dominance ($942,000 cash on hand versus Chiaradio's $16,000 as of March 31) and absent intra-party challenges. Late-breaking scandals, health events for Guest, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave could theoretically challenge this, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,746 거래량
$25,746 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
91%
민주당
7%
$25,746 거래량
$25,746 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$5,646 거래량
91%
민주당
$20,100 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest secured the Republican nomination unopposed in Mississippi's March 10 primary, capturing over 44,000 votes while Democrat Michael Chiaradio advanced with just 2,590 in his uncontested primary, teeing up the November 3 general election in this Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+14. Trader consensus pricing Republicans above 90% stems from the district's entrenched GOP lean—Guest's prior wins of 71% in 2022 and 100% unopposed in 2024—coupled with his fundraising dominance ($942,000 cash on hand versus Chiaradio's $16,000 as of March 31) and absent intra-party challenges. Late-breaking scandals, health events for Guest, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave could theoretically challenge this, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$25,746종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest secured the Republican nomination unopposed in Mississippi's March 10 primary, capturing over 44,000 votes while Democrat Michael Chiaradio advanced with just 2,590 in his uncontested primary, teeing up the November 3 general election in this Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+14. Trader consensus pricing Republicans above 90% stems from the district's entrenched GOP lean—Guest's prior wins of 71% in 2022 and 100% unopposed in 2024—coupled with his fundraising dominance ($942,000 cash on hand versus Chiaradio's $16,000 as of March 31) and absent intra-party challenges. Late-breaking scandals, health events for Guest, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave could theoretically challenge this, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,746종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest secured the Republican nomination unopposed in Mississippi's March 10 primary, capturing over 44,000 votes while Democrat Michael Chiaradio advanced with just 2,590 in his uncontested primary, teeing up the November 3 general election in this Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+14. Trader consensus pricing Republicans above 90% stems from the district's entrenched GOP lean—Guest's prior wins of 71% in 2022 and 100% unopposed in 2024—coupled with his fundraising dominance ($942,000 cash on hand versus Chiaradio's $16,000 as of March 31) and absent intra-party challenges. Late-breaking scandals, health events for Guest, or a massive national Democratic midterm wave could theoretically challenge this, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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