California's 3rd Congressional District, redrawn by voter-approved Proposition 50 in November 2025 to a D+6 to D+10 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, now favors Democrats heavily, driving trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley switched to independent in March 2026 and opted out, leaving an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field led by well-funded Ami Bera (over $1.8 million cash on hand), Heidi Hall, and others ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak GOP challengers like Christine Bish trail in fundraising, while recent candidate forums on May 7 highlighted Democratic priorities on healthcare and housing, reinforcing the district's Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters and limiting Republican paths to victory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,113 거래량
$25,113 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
86%
공화당
8%
$25,113 거래량
$25,113 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$13,178 거래량
86%
공화당
$11,935 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd Congressional District, redrawn by voter-approved Proposition 50 in November 2025 to a D+6 to D+10 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, now favors Democrats heavily, driving trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley switched to independent in March 2026 and opted out, leaving an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field led by well-funded Ami Bera (over $1.8 million cash on hand), Heidi Hall, and others ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak GOP challengers like Christine Bish trail in fundraising, while recent candidate forums on May 7 highlighted Democratic priorities on healthcare and housing, reinforcing the district's Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters and limiting Republican paths to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$25,113종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd Congressional District, redrawn by voter-approved Proposition 50 in November 2025 to a D+6 to D+10 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, now favors Democrats heavily, driving trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley switched to independent in March 2026 and opted out, leaving an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field led by well-funded Ami Bera (over $1.8 million cash on hand), Heidi Hall, and others ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak GOP challengers like Christine Bish trail in fundraising, while recent candidate forums on May 7 highlighted Democratic priorities on healthcare and housing, reinforcing the district's Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters and limiting Republican paths to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,113종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd Congressional District, redrawn by voter-approved Proposition 50 in November 2025 to a D+6 to D+10 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, now favors Democrats heavily, driving trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley switched to independent in March 2026 and opted out, leaving an open seat with a crowded Democratic primary field led by well-funded Ami Bera (over $1.8 million cash on hand), Heidi Hall, and others ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak GOP challengers like Christine Bish trail in fundraising, while recent candidate forums on May 7 highlighted Democratic priorities on healthcare and housing, reinforcing the district's Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters and limiting Republican paths to victory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문