Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes seeks an ninth term in Connecticut's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index stands at D+13 and recent general election margins have consistently favored Democrats by 59-62 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes' eight-term record, substantial cash reserves exceeding $2.3 million as of April 2026, and the absence of a viable major-party Republican challenger ahead of the June 9 filing deadline. Weakly funded Republican primary contenders have emerged, yet they trail far behind in resources and name recognition. The August 11 primaries and November 3 general election remain months away, leaving room for shifts if a high-profile Republican recruit enters late, Himes faces an unexpected personal or legal development, or a broader national midterm environment alters turnout patterns in this suburban Fairfield County seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$31,182 거래량
$31,182 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
5%
$31,182 거래량
$31,182 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$13,407 거래량
93%
공화당
$17,775 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes seeks an ninth term in Connecticut's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index stands at D+13 and recent general election margins have consistently favored Democrats by 59-62 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes' eight-term record, substantial cash reserves exceeding $2.3 million as of April 2026, and the absence of a viable major-party Republican challenger ahead of the June 9 filing deadline. Weakly funded Republican primary contenders have emerged, yet they trail far behind in resources and name recognition. The August 11 primaries and November 3 general election remain months away, leaving room for shifts if a high-profile Republican recruit enters late, Himes faces an unexpected personal or legal development, or a broader national midterm environment alters turnout patterns in this suburban Fairfield County seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$31,182종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes seeks an ninth term in Connecticut's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index stands at D+13 and recent general election margins have consistently favored Democrats by 59-62 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes' eight-term record, substantial cash reserves exceeding $2.3 million as of April 2026, and the absence of a viable major-party Republican challenger ahead of the June 9 filing deadline. Weakly funded Republican primary contenders have emerged, yet they trail far behind in resources and name recognition. The August 11 primaries and November 3 general election remain months away, leaving room for shifts if a high-profile Republican recruit enters late, Himes faces an unexpected personal or legal development, or a broader national midterm environment alters turnout patterns in this suburban Fairfield County seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$31,182종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes seeks an ninth term in Connecticut's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voter Index stands at D+13 and recent general election margins have consistently favored Democrats by 59-62 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes' eight-term record, substantial cash reserves exceeding $2.3 million as of April 2026, and the absence of a viable major-party Republican challenger ahead of the June 9 filing deadline. Weakly funded Republican primary contenders have emerged, yet they trail far behind in resources and name recognition. The August 11 primaries and November 3 general election remain months away, leaving room for shifts if a high-profile Republican recruit enters late, Himes faces an unexpected personal or legal development, or a broader national midterm environment alters turnout patterns in this suburban Fairfield County seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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