Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, representing Connecticut's 4th district since 2009, maintains a commanding position ahead of the November 2026 general election. The southwestern Connecticut district, encompassing areas like Stamford, Greenwich, and Bridgeport, delivered Himes a 61% victory margin in 2024 and exhibits consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles. Strong fundraising by the incumbent, combined with limited Republican primary activity involving candidates such as Michael Goldstein, has reinforced trader views of limited competitiveness. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 and filing deadlines approaching in June, structural factors including incumbency and voter patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Late shifts could arise from unexpected primary dynamics or national political developments closer to election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$32,367 거래량
$32,367 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
4%
$32,367 거래량
$32,367 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,042 거래량
94%
공화당
$18,325 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, representing Connecticut's 4th district since 2009, maintains a commanding position ahead of the November 2026 general election. The southwestern Connecticut district, encompassing areas like Stamford, Greenwich, and Bridgeport, delivered Himes a 61% victory margin in 2024 and exhibits consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles. Strong fundraising by the incumbent, combined with limited Republican primary activity involving candidates such as Michael Goldstein, has reinforced trader views of limited competitiveness. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 and filing deadlines approaching in June, structural factors including incumbency and voter patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Late shifts could arise from unexpected primary dynamics or national political developments closer to election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$32,367종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, representing Connecticut's 4th district since 2009, maintains a commanding position ahead of the November 2026 general election. The southwestern Connecticut district, encompassing areas like Stamford, Greenwich, and Bridgeport, delivered Himes a 61% victory margin in 2024 and exhibits consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles. Strong fundraising by the incumbent, combined with limited Republican primary activity involving candidates such as Michael Goldstein, has reinforced trader views of limited competitiveness. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 and filing deadlines approaching in June, structural factors including incumbency and voter patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Late shifts could arise from unexpected primary dynamics or national political developments closer to election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$32,367종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, representing Connecticut's 4th district since 2009, maintains a commanding position ahead of the November 2026 general election. The southwestern Connecticut district, encompassing areas like Stamford, Greenwich, and Bridgeport, delivered Himes a 61% victory margin in 2024 and exhibits consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles. Strong fundraising by the incumbent, combined with limited Republican primary activity involving candidates such as Michael Goldstein, has reinforced trader views of limited competitiveness. With the Democratic primary set for August 11 and filing deadlines approaching in June, structural factors including incumbency and voter patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Late shifts could arise from unexpected primary dynamics or national political developments closer to election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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