The solidly Democratic character of Illinois’s 4th congressional district, anchored in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 3, 2026 general election. Following incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement after the filing deadline, his chief of staff Patty Garcia advanced unopposed through the March 17 Democratic primary, while Republican Lupe Castillo secured the GOP nomination without opposition. Historical margins exceeding 65 percent for Democratic candidates, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, have reinforced the current pricing. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a major national political realignment could still narrow the gap before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$51,379 거래량
$51,379 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
3%
$51,379 거래량
$51,379 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$36,734 거래량
95%
공화당
$14,645 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of Illinois’s 4th congressional district, anchored in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 3, 2026 general election. Following incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement after the filing deadline, his chief of staff Patty Garcia advanced unopposed through the March 17 Democratic primary, while Republican Lupe Castillo secured the GOP nomination without opposition. Historical margins exceeding 65 percent for Democratic candidates, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, have reinforced the current pricing. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a major national political realignment could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$51,379종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of Illinois’s 4th congressional district, anchored in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 3, 2026 general election. Following incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement after the filing deadline, his chief of staff Patty Garcia advanced unopposed through the March 17 Democratic primary, while Republican Lupe Castillo secured the GOP nomination without opposition. Historical margins exceeding 65 percent for Democratic candidates, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, have reinforced the current pricing. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a major national political realignment could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$51,379종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Democratic character of Illinois’s 4th congressional district, anchored in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in the November 3, 2026 general election. Following incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement after the filing deadline, his chief of staff Patty Garcia advanced unopposed through the March 17 Democratic primary, while Republican Lupe Castillo secured the GOP nomination without opposition. Historical margins exceeding 65 percent for Democratic candidates, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, have reinforced the current pricing. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a major national political realignment could still narrow the gap before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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