The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$51,379 거래량
$51,379 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
3%
$51,379 거래량
$51,379 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$36,734 거래량
95%
공화당
$14,645 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$51,379종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$51,379종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic advantage stems from its Chicago-centered demographics, including heavily Hispanic and urban precincts in areas such as Cicero and Berwyn, which have delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retiring after the March 2026 primary, the party’s uncontested nominee Patty Garcia benefits from established organizational support and the district’s structural lean. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or sharp changes in local turnout that have not materialized in prior elections.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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