The Sacramento-area district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report and Kamala Harris's 52.6 percent share in the 2024 presidential vote, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created the open seat after incumbent Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring district, yet recent EMC Research polling for the June 2 top-two primary shows Republican-aligned independent Kevin Kiley leading at 36 percent amid a crowded Democratic field that includes Richard Pan and Thien Ho. Forecasters such as Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, underscoring enduring partisan advantages in this suburban battleground. Upset scenarios remain possible if Kiley advances to face a divided Democratic ticket, amplified by scandals, turnout shortfalls, or national midterm shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,528 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$286 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Sacramento-area district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report and Kamala Harris's 52.6 percent share in the 2024 presidential vote, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created the open seat after incumbent Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring district, yet recent EMC Research polling for the June 2 top-two primary shows Republican-aligned independent Kevin Kiley leading at 36 percent amid a crowded Democratic field that includes Richard Pan and Thien Ho. Forecasters such as Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, underscoring enduring partisan advantages in this suburban battleground. Upset scenarios remain possible if Kiley advances to face a divided Democratic ticket, amplified by scandals, turnout shortfalls, or national midterm shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$6,814종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Sacramento-area district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report and Kamala Harris's 52.6 percent share in the 2024 presidential vote, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created the open seat after incumbent Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring district, yet recent EMC Research polling for the June 2 top-two primary shows Republican-aligned independent Kevin Kiley leading at 36 percent amid a crowded Democratic field that includes Richard Pan and Thien Ho. Forecasters such as Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, underscoring enduring partisan advantages in this suburban battleground. Upset scenarios remain possible if Kiley advances to face a divided Democratic ticket, amplified by scandals, turnout shortfalls, or national midterm shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,814종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Sacramento-area district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic rating from the Cook Political Report and Kamala Harris's 52.6 percent share in the 2024 presidential vote, underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created the open seat after incumbent Ami Bera shifted to the neighboring district, yet recent EMC Research polling for the June 2 top-two primary shows Republican-aligned independent Kevin Kiley leading at 36 percent amid a crowded Democratic field that includes Richard Pan and Thien Ho. Forecasters such as Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, underscoring enduring partisan advantages in this suburban battleground. Upset scenarios remain possible if Kiley advances to face a divided Democratic ticket, amplified by scandals, turnout shortfalls, or national midterm shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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