Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, a Central Valley seat with a D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for the Democratic Party. Rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features fragmented fields ahead of the June 2 top-two primary: Costa faces two Democratic challengers, while Republicans Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios compete without a clear frontrunner. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, reinforcing incumbency advantages and district fundamentals that historically favor Democrats in general election matchups on November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$953 거래량
88%
Republican Party
$1,268 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, a Central Valley seat with a D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for the Democratic Party. Rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features fragmented fields ahead of the June 2 top-two primary: Costa faces two Democratic challengers, while Republicans Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios compete without a clear frontrunner. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, reinforcing incumbency advantages and district fundamentals that historically favor Democrats in general election matchups on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$2,220종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, a Central Valley seat with a D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for the Democratic Party. Rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features fragmented fields ahead of the June 2 top-two primary: Costa faces two Democratic challengers, while Republicans Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios compete without a clear frontrunner. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, reinforcing incumbency advantages and district fundamentals that historically favor Democrats in general election matchups on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,220종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa's reelection bid in California's 21st Congressional District, a Central Valley seat with a D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for the Democratic Party. Rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features fragmented fields ahead of the June 2 top-two primary: Costa faces two Democratic challengers, while Republicans Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios compete without a clear frontrunner. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, reinforcing incumbency advantages and district fundamentals that historically favor Democrats in general election matchups on November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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