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世界·ドイツ

フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任？

Market icon
世界·ドイツ

フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任？

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

はい

14% chance
Polymarket

$51,011 Vol.

はい

14% chance
Polymarket

$51,011 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD coalition government, formed after the 2025 snap election, remains stable following the CDU's victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, where it secured over 30% despite an AfD surge, bolstering trader confidence in his tenure through 2026. Recent polling shows low personal approval for Merz amid economic challenges and global tensions, including his skepticism on U.S.-Israeli Iran strategy, yet no-confidence threats or coalition collapse signals have emerged, with both parties prioritizing tax and social security reforms. Upcoming 2026 state elections in five regions pose risks, but historical patterns favor continuity absent major scandals or economic shocks. This underpins the 86.5% implied probability he stays in office before 2027.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD coalition government, formed after the 2025 snap election, remains stable following the CDU's victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, where it secured over 30% despite an AfD surge, bolstering trader confidence in his tenure through 2026. Recent polling shows low personal approval for Merz amid economic challenges and global tensions, including his skepticism on U.S.-Israeli Iran strategy, yet no-confidence threats or coalition collapse signals have emerged, with both parties prioritizing tax and social security reforms. Upcoming 2026 state elections in five regions pose risks, but historical patterns favor continuity absent major scandals or economic shocks. This underpins the 86.5% implied probability he stays in office before 2027.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD coalition government, formed after the 2025 snap election, remains stable following the CDU's victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, where it secured over 30% despite an AfD surge, bolstering trader confidence in his tenure through 2026. Recent polling shows low personal approval for Merz amid economic challenges and global tensions, including his skepticism on U.S.-Israeli Iran strategy, yet no-confidence threats or coalition collapse signals have emerged, with both parties prioritizing tax and social security reforms. Upcoming 2026 state elections in five regions pose risks, but historical patterns favor continuity absent major scandals or economic shocks. This underpins the 86.5% implied probability he stays in office before 2027.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD coalition government, formed after the 2025 snap election, remains stable following the CDU's victory in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, where it secured over 30% despite an AfD surge, bolstering trader confidence in his tenure through 2026. Recent polling shows low personal approval for Merz amid economic challenges and global tensions, including his skepticism on U.S.-Israeli Iran strategy, yet no-confidence threats or coalition collapse signals have emerged, with both parties prioritizing tax and social security reforms. Upcoming 2026 state elections in five regions pose risks, but historical patterns favor continuity absent major scandals or economic shocks. This underpins the 86.5% implied probability he stays in office before 2027.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年より前にフリードリッヒ・メルツがドイツの首相を退任するか？」で14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、14¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に14%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

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「フリードリッヒ・メルツが2027年までにドイツの首相に就任？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年より前にフリードリッヒ・メルツがドイツの首相を退任するか？」で14%であり、市場がこの結果に14%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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