Market icon
政治·ドイツ

フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？

Market icon
政治·ドイツ

フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$29,261 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$29,261 Vol.

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Traders' near-unanimous consensus that Friedrich Merz will remain Chancellor of Germany beyond March 31 reflects the stability of his CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition in the Bundestag, with no scheduled no-confidence vote, snap election, or resignation signals amid the tight two-day window. Recent state elections, including CDU victories in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22 and narrower setbacks elsewhere like Baden-Württemberg on March 9, have tested the government on economic pressures and foreign policy challenges such as the Iran conflict but failed to destabilize the federal majority. Merz's recent public commitments to long-term leadership and reforms underscore continuity, though unforeseen scandals, health events, or abrupt coalition fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.

Traders' near-unanimous consensus that Friedrich Merz will remain Chancellor of Germany beyond March 31 reflects the stability of his CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition in the Bundestag, with no scheduled no-confidence vote, snap election, or resignation signals amid the tight two-day window. Recent state elections, including CDU victories in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22 and narrower setbacks elsewhere like Baden-Württemberg on March 9, have tested the government on economic pressures and foreign policy challenges such as the Iran conflict but failed to destabilize the federal majority. Merz's recent public commitments to long-term leadership and reforms underscore continuity, though unforeseen scandals, health events, or abrupt coalition fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Traders' near-unanimous consensus that Friedrich Merz will remain Chancellor of Germany beyond March 31 reflects the stability of his CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition in the Bundestag, with no scheduled no-confidence vote, snap election, or resignation signals amid the tight two-day window. Recent state elections, including CDU victories in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22 and narrower setbacks elsewhere like Baden-Württemberg on March 9, have tested the government on economic pressures and foreign policy challenges such as the Iran conflict but failed to destabilize the federal majority. Merz's recent public commitments to long-term leadership and reforms underscore continuity, though unforeseen scandals, health events, or abrupt coalition fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.

Traders' near-unanimous consensus that Friedrich Merz will remain Chancellor of Germany beyond March 31 reflects the stability of his CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition in the Bundestag, with no scheduled no-confidence vote, snap election, or resignation signals amid the tight two-day window. Recent state elections, including CDU victories in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22 and narrower setbacks elsewhere like Baden-Württemberg on March 9, have tested the government on economic pressures and foreign policy challenges such as the Iran conflict but failed to destabilize the federal majority. Merz's recent public commitments to long-term leadership and reforms underscore continuity, though unforeseen scandals, health events, or abrupt coalition fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「フリードリッヒ・メルツが3月31日までにドイツの首相を退任？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？」は$29.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

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これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「フリードリッヒ・メルツが3月31日までにドイツの首相を退任？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「フリードリヒ・メルツは3月31日までにドイツの首相に就任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。