Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 83.5% to win California's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Tom McClintock's dominance in an R+8 Cook PVI district where Republicans captured 59% in the 2024 presidential vote. McClintock secured 61.8% against Democrat Mike Barkley in 2024, mirroring his 2022 margin, amid forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Post-Proposition 50 redistricting in late 2025 preserved the GOP lean, while Rep. Kevin Kiley's decision to run elsewhere eliminated primary threats by early 2026. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, a fragmented Democratic field—including repeat challenger Barkley and engineer Michael Masuda—poses little upset risk, barring national midterm shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
17%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,384 Vol.
84%
民主党
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 83.5% to win California's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Tom McClintock's dominance in an R+8 Cook PVI district where Republicans captured 59% in the 2024 presidential vote. McClintock secured 61.8% against Democrat Mike Barkley in 2024, mirroring his 2022 margin, amid forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Post-Proposition 50 redistricting in late 2025 preserved the GOP lean, while Rep. Kevin Kiley's decision to run elsewhere eliminated primary threats by early 2026. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, a fragmented Democratic field—including repeat challenger Barkley and engineer Michael Masuda—poses little upset risk, barring national midterm shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$2,384終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 83.5% to win California's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Tom McClintock's dominance in an R+8 Cook PVI district where Republicans captured 59% in the 2024 presidential vote. McClintock secured 61.8% against Democrat Mike Barkley in 2024, mirroring his 2022 margin, amid forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Post-Proposition 50 redistricting in late 2025 preserved the GOP lean, while Rep. Kevin Kiley's decision to run elsewhere eliminated primary threats by early 2026. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, a fragmented Democratic field—including repeat challenger Barkley and engineer Michael Masuda—poses little upset risk, barring national midterm shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,384終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 83.5% to win California's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Tom McClintock's dominance in an R+8 Cook PVI district where Republicans captured 59% in the 2024 presidential vote. McClintock secured 61.8% against Democrat Mike Barkley in 2024, mirroring his 2022 margin, amid forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Post-Proposition 50 redistricting in late 2025 preserved the GOP lean, while Rep. Kevin Kiley's decision to run elsewhere eliminated primary threats by early 2026. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, a fragmented Democratic field—including repeat challenger Barkley and engineer Michael Masuda—poses little upset risk, barring national midterm shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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