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Tech·AI

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·AI

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$19,331 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$19,331 Vol.

Polymarket

25%+

$3,678 Vol.

59%

30%+

$12,605 Vol.

55%

40%+

$2,898 Vol.

48%

50%+

$149 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models lag behind frontier competitors on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok-4 scoring just 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 in Epoch AI's July 2025 evaluation, well below OpenAI's GPT-5.4 at 47.6% and recent Tier 4 records like GPT-5.4 Pro's 38%. No public Grok scores have emerged since, despite xAI's rapid iterations—Grok 4.3 Beta in April 2026 topped AIME math at 100% and other reasoning benchmarks, signaling strong mathematical capabilities elsewhere via Colossus supercluster scaling to hundreds of thousands of GPUs. Traders eye potential pre-June 30 model releases or Epoch evals amid intensifying AI compute races, though OpenAI's verifier access to FrontierMath extensions bolsters its lead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,331
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models lag behind frontier competitors on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok-4 scoring just 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 in Epoch AI's July 2025 evaluation, well below OpenAI's GPT-5.4 at 47.6% and recent Tier 4 records like GPT-5.4 Pro's 38%. No public Grok scores have emerged since, despite xAI's rapid iterations—Grok 4.3 Beta in April 2026 topped AIME math at 100% and other reasoning benchmarks, signaling strong mathematical capabilities elsewhere via Colossus supercluster scaling to hundreds of thousands of GPUs. Traders eye potential pre-June 30 model releases or Epoch evals amid intensifying AI compute races, though OpenAI's verifier access to FrontierMath extensions bolsters its lead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,331
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25%+" at 59%, followed by "30%+" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" has generated $19.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is "25%+" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30%+" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.