Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?

Name: Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?
Start: 2026-03-03T00:10:03.057Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·USD

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?

Mar 31

$333,774 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

↑ 1.8M

$113,991 Vol.

10%

↑ 1.7M

$197,984 Vol.

23%

↑ 1.6M

$4,819 Vol.

52%

↓ 1.4M

$15,846 Vol.

20%

↓ 1.3M

$1,133 Vol.

30%

$333,774 Vol.

↑ 1.8M

$113,991 Vol.

10%

↑ 1.7M

$197,984 Vol.

23%

↑ 1.6M

$4,819 Vol.

52%

↓ 1.4M

$15,846 Vol.

20%

↓ 1.3M

$1,133 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the March 31, 2026, exchange rate data is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

The Iranian rial's rapid depreciation against the USD, with black market rates surpassing 850,000 rials per dollar amid US sanctions and regional tensions, drives trader consensus on Polymarket for hitting the specified threshold by March 31. Recent Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities and President-elect Trump's pledges for maximum pressure have intensified economic strain, exacerbating inflation above 40% and curbing oil exports. While Iran's central bank has injected dollars to defend the currency, limited reserves heighten risks of further slides. Key upcoming events include the January 20 US inauguration, potential new sanctions, and any OPEC+ oil production decisions that could influence revenues and stabilize or worsen the exchange rate trajectory.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 23, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

78%

Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?

37%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 1.6M" at 100%, followed by "↑ 1.5M" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" has generated $333.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" is "↓ 1.6M" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ 1.5M" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $333.8K traded on “Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "↓ 1.6M" in the "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "↓ 1.6M" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" market has an active community of 130 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Related

Comments (130)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?"?

What are the current odds for "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?"?

How will "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?"?

What does a price of 100¢ for "↓ 1.6M" mean?

When does the "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?" market close?

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What is Polymarket?