Trader consensus prices "No" at 93%, reflecting no verified instances of Iranian sabotage on undersea cables despite unverified threats reported in late March amid US-Iran war escalation in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. These warnings, circulated via social media by Iran-backed groups like Houthis, have prompted contingency plans from telecom operators and delays in projects like Meta's 2Africa cable, but Tehran has issued no official confirmation, and severing cables would disrupt its own connectivity while inviting severe international retaliation. Absent concrete military or diplomatic signals of intent through early April, markets anticipate de-escalation or restraint before the April 30 deadline, outweighing rhetorical escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
$29,054 Vol.
$29,054 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$29,054 Vol.
$29,054 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93%, reflecting no verified instances of Iranian sabotage on undersea cables despite unverified threats reported in late March amid US-Iran war escalation in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. These warnings, circulated via social media by Iran-backed groups like Houthis, have prompted contingency plans from telecom operators and delays in projects like Meta's 2Africa cable, but Tehran has issued no official confirmation, and severing cables would disrupt its own connectivity while inviting severe international retaliation. Absent concrete military or diplomatic signals of intent through early April, markets anticipate de-escalation or restraint before the April 30 deadline, outweighing rhetorical escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$29,054End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93%, reflecting no verified instances of Iranian sabotage on undersea cables despite unverified threats reported in late March amid US-Iran war escalation in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. These warnings, circulated via social media by Iran-backed groups like Houthis, have prompted contingency plans from telecom operators and delays in projects like Meta's 2Africa cable, but Tehran has issued no official confirmation, and severing cables would disrupt its own connectivity while inviting severe international retaliation. Absent concrete military or diplomatic signals of intent through early April, markets anticipate de-escalation or restraint before the April 30 deadline, outweighing rhetorical escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,054End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93%, reflecting no verified instances of Iranian sabotage on undersea cables despite unverified threats reported in late March amid US-Iran war escalation in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. These warnings, circulated via social media by Iran-backed groups like Houthis, have prompted contingency plans from telecom operators and delays in projects like Meta's 2Africa cable, but Tehran has issued no official confirmation, and severing cables would disrupt its own connectivity while inviting severe international retaliation. Absent concrete military or diplomatic signals of intent through early April, markets anticipate de-escalation or restraint before the April 30 deadline, outweighing rhetorical escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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