Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Tech·Geopolitics

Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?

Name: Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?
Start: 2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Jun 20, 2025

<1% chance

$427,324 Vol.

Jun 20, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Iran officially declares war on Israel by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying declaration must be explicit and formal, made by the Iranian government through official channels, and must clearly state that Iran is at war. General threats, escalatory rhetoric, or announcements of military action do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war. Only statements issued by the Iranian government qualify. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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