Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?

Name: Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?
Start: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Jan 31

Feb 28

21% chance

NEW

Feb 28, 2026

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.