When will the US next strike Iran? (Week)
No strike by April 4 43%
March 1-7 14%
February 22-28 11%
February 15-21 11%
$39,949 Vol.
$39,949 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
February 15-21
$11,827 Vol.
11%
February 22-28
$8,505 Vol.
11%
March 1-7
$3,760 Vol.
14%
March 8-14
$1,630 Vol.
6%
March 15-21
$1,951 Vol.
8%
March 22-28
$1,835 Vol.
7%
March 29-April 4
$2,027 Vol.
5%
No strike by April 4
$8,415 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the first listed date range (ET) during which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 4, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date range's end date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No Strike by April 4," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed date range (ET) during which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 4, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date range's end date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No Strike by April 4," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date range's end date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No Strike by April 4," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 16, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$39,949End Date
Apr 4, 2026Created At
Feb 16, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...When will the US next strike Iran? (Week)
No strike by April 4 43%
March 1-7 14%
February 22-28 11%
February 15-21 11%
$39,949 Vol.
$39,949 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
February 15-21
$11,827 Vol.
11%
February 22-28
$8,505 Vol.
11%
March 1-7
$3,760 Vol.
14%
March 8-14
$1,630 Vol.
6%
March 15-21
$1,951 Vol.
8%
March 22-28
$1,835 Vol.
7%
March 29-April 4
$2,027 Vol.
5%
No strike by April 4
$8,415 Vol.
43%
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