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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

$368,027 Vol.

Jul 30, 2026
Polymarket

$368,027 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$47,939 Vol.

82%

Jacob Tsimerman

$44,458 Vol.

64%

Jack Thorne

$94,053 Vol.

54%

Yu Deng

$98,387 Vol.

45%

John Pardon

$78,776 Vol.

35%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

39%

Alexander Efimov

$476 Vol.

10%

Aleksandr Logunov

$159 Vol.

15%

Will Sawin

$3,778 Vol.

29%

Sam Raskin

$0 Vol.

39%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal favors mathematicians under 40 with transformative recent breakthroughs, led by Hong Wang's landmark 2025 proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya set conjecture—a top math discovery that has propelled her to frontrunner status in community buzz and betting markets. Jacob Tsimerman's resolution of the André-Oort conjecture and Yu Deng's advances on Hilbert's sixth problem via Boltzmann-Navier-Stokes derivations bolster their cases, echoing historical patterns where paradigm-shifting work in geometry and dynamics wins out, as with 2022's Maryna Viazovska. The IMU's opaque selection by a small committee introduces upset potential, but plenary invitations at the upcoming International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia (July 23–30) will sharpen frontrunner signals amid final pre-award momentum.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$368,027
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal favors mathematicians under 40 with transformative recent breakthroughs, led by Hong Wang's landmark 2025 proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya set conjecture—a top math discovery that has propelled her to frontrunner status in community buzz and betting markets. Jacob Tsimerman's resolution of the André-Oort conjecture and Yu Deng's advances on Hilbert's sixth problem via Boltzmann-Navier-Stokes derivations bolster their cases, echoing historical patterns where paradigm-shifting work in geometry and dynamics wins out, as with 2022's Maryna Viazovska. The IMU's opaque selection by a small committee introduces upset potential, but plenary invitations at the upcoming International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia (July 23–30) will sharpen frontrunner signals amid final pre-award momentum.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$368,027
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hong Wang" at 82%, followed by "Jacob Tsimerman" at 64%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" has generated $368K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" is "Hong Wang" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jacob Tsimerman" at 64%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.