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Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Market icon

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Harry Kane 24.4%

Lamine Yamal 18%

Kylian Mbappé 17%

Declan Rice 10.5%

Polymarket

$2,187,061 Vol.

Harry Kane 24.4%

Lamine Yamal 18%

Kylian Mbappé 17%

Declan Rice 10.5%

Polymarket

$2,187,061 Vol.

Harry Kane

$634,150 Vol.

24%

Lamine Yamal

$43,438 Vol.

18%

Kylian Mbappé

$74,701 Vol.

17%

Declan Rice

$1,956 Vol.

11%

Michael Olise

$2,813 Vol.

9%

Erling Haaland

$232,340 Vol.

4%

Vitinha

$121 Vol.

3%

Ousmane Dembélé

$259,354 Vol.

3%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$118 Vol.

2%

Federico Valverde

$131 Vol.

2%

Luis Diaz

$118 Vol.

2%

Lautaro Martinez

$122 Vol.

2%

Desire Doue

$122 Vol.

2%

Vinícius Júnior

$428,197 Vol.

1%

Raphinha

$125 Vol.

1%

Achraf Hakimi

$131 Vol.

1%

Jude Bellingham

$185,531 Vol.

1%

Pedri

$189,264 Vol.

1%

Dominik Szoboszlai

$127 Vol.

1%

Cole Palmer

$22,515 Vol.

1%

Julian Alvarez

$111 Vol.

1%

Bruno Fernandes

$218 Vol.

1%

Mohamed Salah

$111,371 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane holds a slim trader consensus edge at 24% implied probability for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, fueled by his Bundesliga-leading 31 goals and Bayern Munich's dominant title charge, including recent record-breaking strikes that propelled him past Lamine Yamal as market favorite over the past week. Yamal (17%) and Kylian Mbappé (16.5%) remain close challengers, with Yamal's dazzling Champions League masterclasses against Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, plus Barcelona's La Liga push, and Mbappé's post-injury resurgence anchoring Real Madrid's attack. Declan Rice (11%) and Michael Olise (9%) reflect Arsenal's Premier League contention and Olise's explosive Bayern form—three goals and five assists in early 2026 matches—keeping the race tight amid ongoing knockout stages, tight domestic standings, and the looming 2026 World Cup where international exploits could decisively shift momentum.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$2,187,061
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane holds a slim trader consensus edge at 24% implied probability for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, fueled by his Bundesliga-leading 31 goals and Bayern Munich's dominant title charge, including recent record-breaking strikes that propelled him past Lamine Yamal as market favorite over the past week. Yamal (17%) and Kylian Mbappé (16.5%) remain close challengers, with Yamal's dazzling Champions League masterclasses against Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, plus Barcelona's La Liga push, and Mbappé's post-injury resurgence anchoring Real Madrid's attack. Declan Rice (11%) and Michael Olise (9%) reflect Arsenal's Premier League contention and Olise's explosive Bayern form—three goals and five assists in early 2026 matches—keeping the race tight amid ongoing knockout stages, tight domestic standings, and the looming 2026 World Cup where international exploits could decisively shift momentum.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$2,187,061
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harry Kane" at 24%, followed by "Lamine Yamal" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is "Harry Kane" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lamine Yamal" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.