Tarik Skubal commands top billing at 25% implied probability thanks to his dominant 2024 AL Cy Young win—2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts—and ace projection for a resurgent Tigers rotation amid their playoff push. Dylan Cease and Garrett Crochet trail with elite velocity and K-rates (Cease's 11.4 K/9, Crochet's breakout), but Cease's Padres tenure raises trade speculation for AL eligibility. Jacob deGrom's sub-2.00 ERA pedigree shines if healthy post-Tommy John, while George Kirby's pinpoint control (1.66 BB/9) and Mariners depth ensure workload reliability. Max Fried's groundball mastery could pivot via free agency, underscoring a fluid market sensitive to health, contracts, and AL landings in this wide-open race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
5%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
25%
George Kirby
12%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
5%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
25%
George Kirby
12%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarik Skubal commands top billing at 25% implied probability thanks to his dominant 2024 AL Cy Young win—2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts—and ace projection for a resurgent Tigers rotation amid their playoff push. Dylan Cease and Garrett Crochet trail with elite velocity and K-rates (Cease's 11.4 K/9, Crochet's breakout), but Cease's Padres tenure raises trade speculation for AL eligibility. Jacob deGrom's sub-2.00 ERA pedigree shines if healthy post-Tommy John, while George Kirby's pinpoint control (1.66 BB/9) and Mariners depth ensure workload reliability. Max Fried's groundball mastery could pivot via free agency, underscoring a fluid market sensitive to health, contracts, and AL landings in this wide-open race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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