Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Kevin Warsh 98.6%

Judy Shelton 1.0%

Christopher Waller <1%

Jerome Powell <1%

$374,141,532 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh
$26,727,816 Vol.
99%

Judy Shelton
$41,110,622 Vol.
1%

Christopher Waller
$15,631,322 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$21,451,831 Vol.
<1%

Rick Rieder
$17,560,484 Vol.
<1%

Michelle Bowman
$14,418,652 Vol.
<1%

Kevin Hassett
$21,407,199 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$23,532,215 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$5,948,532 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$2,398,975 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$20,966,373 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$10,111,186 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$12,361,107 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$8,886,320 Vol.
<1%

Scott Bessent
$14,582,840 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,447,588 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$4,140,874 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$17,758,970 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$2,564,133 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$10,600,628 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$21,088,612 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,892,631 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$20,726,663 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$23,289,798 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$8,531,239 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final review

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 98.6%

Judy Shelton 1.0%

Christopher Waller <1%

Jerome Powell <1%

$374,141,532 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh

$26,727,816 Vol.

99%

Judy Shelton

$41,110,622 Vol.

Christopher Waller

$15,631,322 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$21,451,831 Vol.

<1%

Rick Rieder

$17,560,484 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bowman

$14,418,652 Vol.

<1%

Kevin Hassett

$21,407,199 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$23,532,215 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$5,948,532 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$2,398,975 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$20,966,373 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$10,111,186 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$12,361,107 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$8,886,320 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$14,582,840 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$2,447,588 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$4,140,874 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$17,758,970 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$2,564,133 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$10,600,628 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$21,088,612 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,892,631 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$20,726,663 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$23,289,798 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$8,531,239 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$374,141,532

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 1:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

21%

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

95%

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

61%

Beware of external links.