Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$168,676,674 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 45%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Christopher Waller 12.8%

Rick Rieder 3.7%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$4,502,173 Vol.
45%

Kevin Hassett
$8,623,513 Vol.
34%

Christopher Waller
$3,617,367 Vol.
13%

Rick Rieder
$2,853,313 Vol.
4%

Judy Shelton
$4,127,794 Vol.
2%

Scott Bessent
$3,999,441 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,345,405 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,205,983 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,091,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,731,465 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$3,652,300 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,291,647 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,736,840 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,645,256 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,477,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,590,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,569,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,129,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,366,576 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$168,676,674

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$168,676,674 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 45%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Christopher Waller 12.8%

Rick Rieder 3.7%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$4,502,173 Vol.

45%

Kevin Hassett

$8,623,513 Vol.

34%

Christopher Waller

$3,617,367 Vol.

13%

Rick Rieder

$2,853,313 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,127,794 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$3,999,441 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,345,405 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$3,205,983 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$2,091,665 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$2,731,465 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$3,652,300 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,291,647 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$20,736,840 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,645,256 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$9,477,154 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,860,165 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,634,729 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,835,542 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,590,905 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,959,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,549,889 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,569,840 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,274,042 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,129,336 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,366,576 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$168,676,674

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

16%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$4,502,173 Vol.
45%

Kevin Hassett
$8,623,513 Vol.
34%

Christopher Waller
$3,617,367 Vol.
13%

Rick Rieder
$2,853,313 Vol.
4%

Judy Shelton
$4,127,794 Vol.
2%

Scott Bessent
$3,999,441 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,345,405 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,205,983 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,091,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,731,465 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$3,652,300 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,291,647 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,736,840 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,645,256 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,477,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,590,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,569,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,129,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,366,576 Vol.
<1%

Market Context