Which company has best AI model end of March?
$4,240,857 Vol.
Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
Anthropic <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
RESULT

Google
$667,877 Vol.
Yes

$667,877 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$721,150 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$721,150 Vol.
No

xAI
$612,054 Vol.
No

xAI
$612,054 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$696,737 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$696,737 Vol.
No

Meta
$620,836 Vol.
No

Meta
$620,836 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$432,703 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$432,703 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$489,501 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$489,501 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Created At: Feb 20, 2025, 7:19 PM
Volume
$4,240,857End Date
Mar 31, 2025Created At
Feb 20, 2025, 7:19 PMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$4,240,857 Vol.
Which company has best AI model end of March?
Google 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
Anthropic <1%

$667,877 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$721,150 Vol.
No

xAI
$612,054 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$696,737 Vol.
No

Meta
$620,836 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$432,703 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$489,501 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$4,240,857End Date
Mar 31, 2025Created At
Feb 20, 2025, 7:19 PMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...


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