Trader consensus favors "Embargo" at 24% implied probability as the top outcome, reflecting President Trump's March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami, where he declared "Cuba is next" amid discussions of tightening sanctions and historical U.S. policy toward the island. Close behind, "Khamenei" (19%) and "Finish the Job" (22%) gain traction from his simultaneous claims that Iran is "being decimated" during ongoing military operations, with the Iranian supreme leader as a frequent target in prior statements. Remarks to farmers that day elevated "Ethanol" (11%) tied to trade and agriculture priorities. With no public schedule announced for March 29-April 5, traders anticipate Truth Social posts, interviews, or unscripted comments amid foreign policy escalations and domestic executive actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$471,733 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
24%
Kaitlan Collins
4%
Eat our Lunch
6%
Ethanol
9%
Embargo
13%
Finish the Job
13%
Khamenei
8%
Chuck Norris
2%
$471,733 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$15,426 Vol.
24%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,313 Vol.
4%
Eat our Lunch
$1,678 Vol.
6%
Ethanol
$11,211 Vol.
9%
Embargo
$8,490 Vol.
13%
Finish the Job
$3,613 Vol.
13%
Khamenei
$52,838 Vol.
8%
Chuck Norris
$7,739 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors "Embargo" at 24% implied probability as the top outcome, reflecting President Trump's March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami, where he declared "Cuba is next" amid discussions of tightening sanctions and historical U.S. policy toward the island. Close behind, "Khamenei" (19%) and "Finish the Job" (22%) gain traction from his simultaneous claims that Iran is "being decimated" during ongoing military operations, with the Iranian supreme leader as a frequent target in prior statements. Remarks to farmers that day elevated "Ethanol" (11%) tied to trade and agriculture priorities. With no public schedule announced for March 29-April 5, traders anticipate Truth Social posts, interviews, or unscripted comments amid foreign policy escalations and domestic executive actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$471,733End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors "Embargo" at 24% implied probability as the top outcome, reflecting President Trump's March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami, where he declared "Cuba is next" amid discussions of tightening sanctions and historical U.S. policy toward the island. Close behind, "Khamenei" (19%) and "Finish the Job" (22%) gain traction from his simultaneous claims that Iran is "being decimated" during ongoing military operations, with the Iranian supreme leader as a frequent target in prior statements. Remarks to farmers that day elevated "Ethanol" (11%) tied to trade and agriculture priorities. With no public schedule announced for March 29-April 5, traders anticipate Truth Social posts, interviews, or unscripted comments amid foreign policy escalations and domestic executive actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$471,733End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus favors "Embargo" at 24% implied probability as the top outcome, reflecting President Trump's March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami, where he declared "Cuba is next" amid discussions of tightening sanctions and historical U.S. policy toward the island. Close behind, "Khamenei" (19%) and "Finish the Job" (22%) gain traction from his simultaneous claims that Iran is "being decimated" during ongoing military operations, with the Iranian supreme leader as a frequent target in prior statements. Remarks to farmers that day elevated "Ethanol" (11%) tied to trade and agriculture priorities. With no public schedule announced for March 29-April 5, traders anticipate Truth Social posts, interviews, or unscripted comments amid foreign policy escalations and domestic executive actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions