Name: What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?
Start: 2026-01-05T13:02:26.610968Z
End: 2026-02-01T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. 

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/4)

<412k

412 - 414k

416 - 418k

418 - 420k

414 - 416k

>420k

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765).  The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/6)


Will the median home value in the US be greater than $418,000 by February 1?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/5)

Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be less than $1,130,000 by February 1?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. 

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/2)


Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,100,000 by February 1?

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending January 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending in January 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for January 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on February 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, John Cornyn becomes the favorite in the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" (https://polymarket.com/event/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner) for any four-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

John Cornyn will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if he is ahead of Ken Paxton in more individual minutes than Ken Paxton is ahead of John Cornyn during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-cornyn-flip-paxton-for-texas-rep-senate-primary-winner-by-jan-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the two-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.

This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.

A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Milady floor price reaches 2ETH or higher at any point between December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "Milady price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/milady, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart.

Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.

Will Milady floor price reach 2 ETH before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. 

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

<412k
$851 Vol.
42%
0123456789
%

412 - 414k
$738 Vol.
21%
0123456789
%

414 - 416k
$414 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

416 - 418k
$439 Vol.
11%
0123456789
0123456789
%

418 - 420k
$283 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

>420k
$2,274 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

Market Context

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

Rules

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

Market Context

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

About

Related

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

<412k$851 Vol.42%0123456789%buy Yes44¢buy No61¢

412 - 414k$738 Vol.21%0123456789%buy Yes26¢buy No85¢

414 - 416k$414 Vol.18%0123456789%buy Yes19¢buy No83¢

416 - 418k$439 Vol.11%01234567890123456789%buy Yes19.5¢buy No97.5¢

418 - 420k$283 Vol.7%0123456789%buy Yes7¢buy No94¢

>420k$2,274 Vol.10%0123456789%buy Yes14.0¢buy No94.7¢

Market Context

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

Rules

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

Market Context

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on February 1?

About

Related

<412k
$851 Vol.
42%
0123456789
%

412 - 414k
$738 Vol.
21%
0123456789
%

414 - 416k
$414 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

416 - 418k
$439 Vol.
11%
0123456789
0123456789
%

418 - 420k
$283 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

>420k
$2,274 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%