**Trader sentiment on the 2026 US goods and services trade deficit remains tightly contested between 800–900 billion (35%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (28%), driven by volatile early-year data amid tariff policies.** February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $59–61 billion—following January's sharp 25% drop to $54.5 billion, one year after broad Liberation Day tariffs took effect. These executive actions have narrowed bilateral gaps, notably a 32% plunge with China and 24% overall goods deficit reduction since April 2025, yet robust domestic demand, fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, and capital inflows sustain import pressures. The race stays close as supply chain adaptations and dollar strength could reverse narrowing trends; monthly BEA releases, GDP growth, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and further trade negotiations represent key catalysts for divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
9%
500–600B
7%
600–700B
6%
700–800B
12%
800–900B
35%
900B–1T
28%
1T–1.1T
13%
1.1T+
16%
$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,379 Vol.
9%
500–600B
$0 Vol.
7%
600–700B
$0 Vol.
6%
700–800B
$0 Vol.
12%
800–900B
$0 Vol.
35%
900B–1T
$635 Vol.
28%
1T–1.1T
$0 Vol.
13%
1.1T+
$402 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Trader sentiment on the 2026 US goods and services trade deficit remains tightly contested between 800–900 billion (35%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (28%), driven by volatile early-year data amid tariff policies.** February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $59–61 billion—following January's sharp 25% drop to $54.5 billion, one year after broad Liberation Day tariffs took effect. These executive actions have narrowed bilateral gaps, notably a 32% plunge with China and 24% overall goods deficit reduction since April 2025, yet robust domestic demand, fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, and capital inflows sustain import pressures. The race stays close as supply chain adaptations and dollar strength could reverse narrowing trends; monthly BEA releases, GDP growth, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and further trade negotiations represent key catalysts for divergence.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$17,416End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Trader sentiment on the 2026 US goods and services trade deficit remains tightly contested between 800–900 billion (35%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (28%), driven by volatile early-year data amid tariff policies.** February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $59–61 billion—following January's sharp 25% drop to $54.5 billion, one year after broad Liberation Day tariffs took effect. These executive actions have narrowed bilateral gaps, notably a 32% plunge with China and 24% overall goods deficit reduction since April 2025, yet robust domestic demand, fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, and capital inflows sustain import pressures. The race stays close as supply chain adaptations and dollar strength could reverse narrowing trends; monthly BEA releases, GDP growth, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and further trade negotiations represent key catalysts for divergence.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$17,416End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on the 2026 US goods and services trade deficit remains tightly contested between 800–900 billion (35%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (28%), driven by volatile early-year data amid tariff policies.** February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $59–61 billion—following January's sharp 25% drop to $54.5 billion, one year after broad Liberation Day tariffs took effect. These executive actions have narrowed bilateral gaps, notably a 32% plunge with China and 24% overall goods deficit reduction since April 2025, yet robust domestic demand, fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, and capital inflows sustain import pressures. The race stays close as supply chain adaptations and dollar strength could reverse narrowing trends; monthly BEA releases, GDP growth, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and further trade negotiations represent key catalysts for divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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