Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
Geopolitics·Middle East

US strikes Iran by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Middle East

US strikes Iran by...?

Ended: Jun 30

Ended: Jun 30

$529,033,417 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$19,193 Vol.

No

January 11

$3,035,454 Vol.

No

January 12

$1,743,135 Vol.

No

January 13

$3,335,543 Vol.

No

January 14

$13,619,742 Vol.

No

January 15

$7,975,002 Vol.

No

January 16

$8,491,723 Vol.

No

January 17

$3,823,998 Vol.

No

January 18

$5,468,913 Vol.

No

January 23

$12,296,618 Vol.

No

January 24

$2,924,662 Vol.

No

January 25

$2,703,692 Vol.

No

January 26

$6,908,538 Vol.

No

January 27

$2,498,074 Vol.

No

January 28

$1,950,685 Vol.

No

January 29

$3,064,539 Vol.

No

January 30

$3,469,659 Vol.

No

January 31

$41,754,060 Vol.

No

February 1

$6,629,658 Vol.

No

February 2

$4,246,232 Vol.

No

February 3

$3,763,165 Vol.

No

February 4

$3,844,340 Vol.

No

February 5

$4,461,531 Vol.

No

February 6

$9,750,256 Vol.

No

February 7

$3,615,405 Vol.

No

February 8

$3,821,142 Vol.

No

February 9

$17,561,112 Vol.

No

February 10

$10,496,937 Vol.

No

February 11

$4,493,524 Vol.

No

February 12

$4,187,886 Vol.

No

February 13

$15,146,244 Vol.

No

February 14

$4,140,716 Vol.

No

February 15

$4,542,348 Vol.

No

February 16

$4,855,990 Vol.

No

February 17

$5,599,406 Vol.

No

February 18

$7,408,763 Vol.

No

February 19

$8,798,853 Vol.

No

February 20

$18,810,054 Vol.

No

February 21

$12,250,013 Vol.

No

February 22

$12,611,170 Vol.

No

February 23

$14,022,419 Vol.

No

February 24

$16,942,274 Vol.

No

February 25

$10,517,389 Vol.

No

February 26

$14,489,547 Vol.

No

February 27

$25,087,849 Vol.

No

February 28

$89,652,867 Vol.

Yes

March 1

$8,093,539 Vol.

Yes

March 2

$3,812,922 Vol.

Yes

March 3

$1,917,863 Vol.

Yes

March 4

$1,376,485 Vol.

Yes

March 5

$1,565,799 Vol.

Yes

March 6

$1,008,204 Vol.

Yes

March 7

$2,470,666 Vol.

Yes

March 8

$539,454 Vol.

Yes

March 9

$379,810 Vol.

Yes

March 10

$269,970 Vol.

Yes

March 11

$190,483 Vol.

Yes

March 12

$197,658 Vol.

Yes

March 13

$283,107 Vol.

Yes

March 14

$357,946 Vol.

Yes

March 15

$6,642,886 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$22,213,247 Vol.

Yes

June 30

$9,193,272 Vol.

Yes

December 31

$1,689,785 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 11:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

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Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?

98%
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Will Iran strike Israel in March?

99%
Market icon

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

50%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US strikes Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "February 28" at 100%, followed by "March 1" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US strikes Iran by...?" has generated $529 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US strikes Iran by...?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US strikes Iran by...?" is "February 28" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 1" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US strikes Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.