US special forces conducted a ground raid into Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue one crew member from an F-15 fighter jet downed by Iranian air defenses, marking the first confirmed US boots-on-the-ground operation since the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership began on February 28. A second US aircraft, an A-10, was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, with one airman still missing amid ongoing search efforts. Pentagon preparations for limited ground raids on Kharg Island and coastal targets continue, as President Trump vows intensified strikes over the next weeks, fueling trader consensus on escalation risks despite no full-scale invasion. Upcoming rescue operations or island assaults could further tip probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$117,003,105 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
81%
December 31
88%
$117,003,105 Vol.
March 31
$73,009,628 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$31,133,967 Vol.
81%
December 31
$10,789,019 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a ground raid into Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue one crew member from an F-15 fighter jet downed by Iranian air defenses, marking the first confirmed US boots-on-the-ground operation since the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership began on February 28. A second US aircraft, an A-10, was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, with one airman still missing amid ongoing search efforts. Pentagon preparations for limited ground raids on Kharg Island and coastal targets continue, as President Trump vows intensified strikes over the next weeks, fueling trader consensus on escalation risks despite no full-scale invasion. Upcoming rescue operations or island assaults could further tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$117,003,105Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a ground raid into Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue one crew member from an F-15 fighter jet downed by Iranian air defenses, marking the first confirmed US boots-on-the-ground operation since the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership began on February 28. A second US aircraft, an A-10, was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, with one airman still missing amid ongoing search efforts. Pentagon preparations for limited ground raids on Kharg Island and coastal targets continue, as President Trump vows intensified strikes over the next weeks, fueling trader consensus on escalation risks despite no full-scale invasion. Upcoming rescue operations or island assaults could further tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,003,105Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US special forces conducted a ground raid into Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue one crew member from an F-15 fighter jet downed by Iranian air defenses, marking the first confirmed US boots-on-the-ground operation since the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership began on February 28. A second US aircraft, an A-10, was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, with one airman still missing amid ongoing search efforts. Pentagon preparations for limited ground raids on Kharg Island and coastal targets continue, as President Trump vows intensified strikes over the next weeks, fueling trader consensus on escalation risks despite no full-scale invasion. Upcoming rescue operations or island assaults could further tip probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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