Amid Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since early March—triggered by US-Israeli strikes—Iranian forces have disrupted commercial shipping with drone and missile attacks, prompting daily requests from the industry for US Navy escorts that have gone unfulfilled. President Trump vowed naval protection for tankers if necessary, with officials like CENTCOM weighing options amid risks from IRGC fast boats, mines, and shore batteries, but the Pentagon confirms no escorts have occurred despite a deleted Energy Secretary claim. Trader consensus reflects this via low implied probability (5%) for action by March 31, rising to 44% by April 30, as military preparations lag; recent Trump delay on Iran strikes and Houthi threats signal potential escalation or diplomacy ahead of the April window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$1,977,070 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
March 31
3%
April 15
13%
April 30
24%
$1,977,070 Vol.
March 31
$1,800,684 Vol.
3%
April 15
$25,157 Vol.
13%
April 30
$151,229 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since early March—triggered by US-Israeli strikes—Iranian forces have disrupted commercial shipping with drone and missile attacks, prompting daily requests from the industry for US Navy escorts that have gone unfulfilled. President Trump vowed naval protection for tankers if necessary, with officials like CENTCOM weighing options amid risks from IRGC fast boats, mines, and shore batteries, but the Pentagon confirms no escorts have occurred despite a deleted Energy Secretary claim. Trader consensus reflects this via low implied probability (5%) for action by March 31, rising to 44% by April 30, as military preparations lag; recent Trump delay on Iran strikes and Houthi threats signal potential escalation or diplomacy ahead of the April window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,977,070End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since early March—triggered by US-Israeli strikes—Iranian forces have disrupted commercial shipping with drone and missile attacks, prompting daily requests from the industry for US Navy escorts that have gone unfulfilled. President Trump vowed naval protection for tankers if necessary, with officials like CENTCOM weighing options amid risks from IRGC fast boats, mines, and shore batteries, but the Pentagon confirms no escorts have occurred despite a deleted Energy Secretary claim. Trader consensus reflects this via low implied probability (5%) for action by March 31, rising to 44% by April 30, as military preparations lag; recent Trump delay on Iran strikes and Houthi threats signal potential escalation or diplomacy ahead of the April window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,977,070End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since early March—triggered by US-Israeli strikes—Iranian forces have disrupted commercial shipping with drone and missile attacks, prompting daily requests from the industry for US Navy escorts that have gone unfulfilled. President Trump vowed naval protection for tankers if necessary, with officials like CENTCOM weighing options amid risks from IRGC fast boats, mines, and shore batteries, but the Pentagon confirms no escorts have occurred despite a deleted Energy Secretary claim. Trader consensus reflects this via low implied probability (5%) for action by March 31, rising to 44% by April 30, as military preparations lag; recent Trump delay on Iran strikes and Houthi threats signal potential escalation or diplomacy ahead of the April window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions