Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO closing market cap most likely in the 1.5T-2.0T range at 39.5% implied probability, closely tracking reports of a confidential S-1 filing on April 1 targeting around $1.75 trillion valuation for a potential June roadshow and July listing—the largest ever. This surge from December's $800 billion tender offer reflects Starlink's explosive satellite broadband growth, Starship V3 reusability milestones with first flights imminent, and reusable rocket dominance capturing 80% of global orbital mass to low Earth orbit. Higher buckets like 2.0T-2.5T (23.5%) account for upside from xAI integration rumors and space data center ambitions, while low odds for no IPO pre-2028 (2.8%) affirm momentum toward public markets amid regulatory green lights.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,839,752 Vol.
$1,839,752 Vol.
<1.0T
5%
1.0T-1.5T
6%
1.5T-2.0T
40%
2.0T-2.5T
24%
2.5T-3.0T
11%
3.0T-3.5T
12%
3.5T+
2%
No IPO before 2028
3%
$1,839,752 Vol.
$1,839,752 Vol.
<1.0T
$64,211 Vol.
5%
1.0T-1.5T
$43,995 Vol.
6%
1.5T-2.0T
$54,303 Vol.
40%
2.0T-2.5T
$64,135 Vol.
24%
2.5T-3.0T
$809,113 Vol.
11%
3.0T-3.5T
$475,116 Vol.
12%
3.5T+
$58,948 Vol.
2%
No IPO before 2028
$269,930 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO closing market cap most likely in the 1.5T-2.0T range at 39.5% implied probability, closely tracking reports of a confidential S-1 filing on April 1 targeting around $1.75 trillion valuation for a potential June roadshow and July listing—the largest ever. This surge from December's $800 billion tender offer reflects Starlink's explosive satellite broadband growth, Starship V3 reusability milestones with first flights imminent, and reusable rocket dominance capturing 80% of global orbital mass to low Earth orbit. Higher buckets like 2.0T-2.5T (23.5%) account for upside from xAI integration rumors and space data center ambitions, while low odds for no IPO pre-2028 (2.8%) affirm momentum toward public markets amid regulatory green lights.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,839,752Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO closing market cap most likely in the 1.5T-2.0T range at 39.5% implied probability, closely tracking reports of a confidential S-1 filing on April 1 targeting around $1.75 trillion valuation for a potential June roadshow and July listing—the largest ever. This surge from December's $800 billion tender offer reflects Starlink's explosive satellite broadband growth, Starship V3 reusability milestones with first flights imminent, and reusable rocket dominance capturing 80% of global orbital mass to low Earth orbit. Higher buckets like 2.0T-2.5T (23.5%) account for upside from xAI integration rumors and space data center ambitions, while low odds for no IPO pre-2028 (2.8%) affirm momentum toward public markets amid regulatory green lights.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,839,752Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO closing market cap most likely in the 1.5T-2.0T range at 39.5% implied probability, closely tracking reports of a confidential S-1 filing on April 1 targeting around $1.75 trillion valuation for a potential June roadshow and July listing—the largest ever. This surge from December's $800 billion tender offer reflects Starlink's explosive satellite broadband growth, Starship V3 reusability milestones with first flights imminent, and reusable rocket dominance capturing 80% of global orbital mass to low Earth orbit. Higher buckets like 2.0T-2.5T (23.5%) account for upside from xAI integration rumors and space data center ambitions, while low odds for no IPO pre-2028 (2.8%) affirm momentum toward public markets amid regulatory green lights.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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