Polymarket traders show closely contested market-implied probabilities for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins tied at 32.5%, reflecting uncertainty over export-led rebound versus persistent domestic weakness. Strong semiconductor shipments drove February 2026 exports up 29% year-on-year for a ninth straight month, supporting higher bins amid an AI boom, while Bank of Korea's revised full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% (up from 1.8%) signals upcycle potential. However, Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction—due to construction slumps and tepid consumption—creates a low base but tempers Q1 optimism, exacerbated by OECD's recent 1.7% full-year downgrade. Key swing factors include March industrial output and retail sales ahead of late-April GDP release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSouth Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.0–2.4% 31%
1.0–1.4% 19.7%
2.5%+ 15%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0.5–0.9%
32%
1.0–1.4%
20%
1.5–1.9%
33%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5%+
13%
2.0–2.4% 31%
1.0–1.4% 19.7%
2.5%+ 15%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 Vol.
3%
0.5–0.9%
$0 Vol.
32%
1.0–1.4%
$0 Vol.
20%
1.5–1.9%
$267 Vol.
33%
2.0–2.4%
$0 Vol.
25%
2.5%+
$6,175 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders show closely contested market-implied probabilities for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins tied at 32.5%, reflecting uncertainty over export-led rebound versus persistent domestic weakness. Strong semiconductor shipments drove February 2026 exports up 29% year-on-year for a ninth straight month, supporting higher bins amid an AI boom, while Bank of Korea's revised full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% (up from 1.8%) signals upcycle potential. However, Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction—due to construction slumps and tepid consumption—creates a low base but tempers Q1 optimism, exacerbated by OECD's recent 1.7% full-year downgrade. Key swing factors include March industrial output and retail sales ahead of late-April GDP release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$6,442End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders show closely contested market-implied probabilities for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins tied at 32.5%, reflecting uncertainty over export-led rebound versus persistent domestic weakness. Strong semiconductor shipments drove February 2026 exports up 29% year-on-year for a ninth straight month, supporting higher bins amid an AI boom, while Bank of Korea's revised full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% (up from 1.8%) signals upcycle potential. However, Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction—due to construction slumps and tepid consumption—creates a low base but tempers Q1 optimism, exacerbated by OECD's recent 1.7% full-year downgrade. Key swing factors include March industrial output and retail sales ahead of late-April GDP release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$6,442End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show closely contested market-implied probabilities for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins tied at 32.5%, reflecting uncertainty over export-led rebound versus persistent domestic weakness. Strong semiconductor shipments drove February 2026 exports up 29% year-on-year for a ninth straight month, supporting higher bins amid an AI boom, while Bank of Korea's revised full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% (up from 1.8%) signals upcycle potential. However, Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction—due to construction slumps and tepid consumption—creates a low base but tempers Q1 optimism, exacerbated by OECD's recent 1.7% full-year downgrade. Key swing factors include March industrial output and retail sales ahead of late-April GDP release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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