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Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

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Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

Scottish National Party 97.1%

Reform UK 1.6%

Sovereignty Party <1%

Scottish Labour <1%

Polymarket

$1,602,531 Vol.

Scottish National Party 97.1%

Reform UK 1.6%

Sovereignty Party <1%

Scottish Labour <1%

Polymarket

$1,602,531 Vol.

Scottish National Party

$1,302,988 Vol.

97%

Reform UK

$80,923 Vol.

2%

Sovereignty Party

$6,418 Vol.

<1%

Scottish Labour

$41,085 Vol.

<1%

Scottish Liberal Democrats

$107,622 Vol.

<1%

Scottish Green Party

$41,329 Vol.

<1%

Scottish Conservatives

$5,447 Vol.

<1%

Alba Party

$16,718 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Scottish National Party's commanding trader consensus ahead of the May 7, 2026, Holyrood election stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent Survation (March 16-23) and Ipsos surveys showing 35-36% constituency vote share and 16-point leads over Scottish Labour and Reform UK. Seat projections place SNP at 62-63 MSPs, bolstered by fragmented opposition—Labour weakened post-2024 UK general election losses, Reform UK rising to second but capped, Conservatives declining, and Alba Party's March 26 deregistration consolidating pro-independence support. Key voter concerns like economy, NHS, and immigration favor incumbents in polls. Barring late-breaking scandals, leadership gaffes, or an improbable opposition surge, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds pricing minimal upset risk.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,602,531
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Scottish National Party's commanding trader consensus ahead of the May 7, 2026, Holyrood election stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent Survation (March 16-23) and Ipsos surveys showing 35-36% constituency vote share and 16-point leads over Scottish Labour and Reform UK. Seat projections place SNP at 62-63 MSPs, bolstered by fragmented opposition—Labour weakened post-2024 UK general election losses, Reform UK rising to second but capped, Conservatives declining, and Alba Party's March 26 deregistration consolidating pro-independence support. Key voter concerns like economy, NHS, and immigration favor incumbents in polls. Barring late-breaking scandals, leadership gaffes, or an improbable opposition surge, this positioning reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds pricing minimal upset risk.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,602,531
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scottish National Party" at 97%, followed by "Reform UK" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Scottish National Party" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reform UK" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.