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Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?

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Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,438 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,438 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them.

A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$33,438
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Sep 12, 2025, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them. A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them.

A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$33,438
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Sep 12, 2025, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them. A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?" has generated $33.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.