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War Powers resolution passes the Senate?

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War Powers resolution passes the Senate?

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
6% chance
Polymarket
NEW

On March 4, the US Senate is expected to vote on S.J.Res.104 - A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. You can read more about that here: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/04/iran-senate-democrats-aumf-vote

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified legislation passes the Senate by March 6, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no vote takes place by March 6, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the initial roll call vote for the passage of the specified legislation. Any subsequent votes will not be considered.

Senators without a formal party affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they caucus with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government (e.g., https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/104), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,380
End Date
Mar 6, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
On March 4, the US Senate is expected to vote on S.J.Res.104 - A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. You can read more about that here: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/04/iran-senate-democrats-aumf-vote This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified legislation passes the Senate by March 6, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no vote takes place by March 6, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the initial roll call vote for the passage of the specified legislation. Any subsequent votes will not be considered. Senators without a formal party affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they caucus with. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government (e.g., https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/104), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

On March 4, the US Senate is expected to vote on S.J.Res.104 - A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. You can read more about that here: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/04/iran-senate-democrats-aumf-vote

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified legislation passes the Senate by March 6, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no vote takes place by March 6, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the initial roll call vote for the passage of the specified legislation. Any subsequent votes will not be considered.

Senators without a formal party affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they caucus with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government (e.g., https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/104), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,380
End Date
Mar 6, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
On March 4, the US Senate is expected to vote on S.J.Res.104 - A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. You can read more about that here: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/04/iran-senate-democrats-aumf-vote This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified legislation passes the Senate by March 6, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no vote takes place by March 6, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the initial roll call vote for the passage of the specified legislation. Any subsequent votes will not be considered. Senators without a formal party affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they caucus with. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government (e.g., https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/104), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"War Powers resolution passes the Senate?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"War Powers resolution passes the Senate?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "War Powers resolution passes the Senate?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "War Powers resolution passes the Senate?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "War Powers resolution passes the Senate?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.