Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Nothing Ever Happens: July

<1% chance

$119,606 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire
-Elon Musk creates a new political party
-The Fed cuts rates
-US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal
-A nuclear weapon detonates

Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:

https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+2.png
Volume
$119,606
End Date
Jul 31, 2025
Created At
Jul 2, 2025, 3:14 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: -Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire -Elon Musk creates a new political party -The Fed cuts rates -US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal -A nuclear weapon detonates Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+2.png

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Nothing Ever Happens: July

<1% chance

$119,606 Vol.

About

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire
-Elon Musk creates a new political party
-The Fed cuts rates
-US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal
-A nuclear weapon detonates

Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:

https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+2.png
Volume
$119,606
End Date
Jul 31, 2025
Created At
Jul 2, 2025, 3:14 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: -Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire -Elon Musk creates a new political party -The Fed cuts rates -US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal -A nuclear weapon detonates Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+July+2.png

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.